全球流动性”祛魅“，中国资产”重估“

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. job market shows signs of weakness with November 2025 unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021[10] - November 2025 CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflation concerns[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, driven by economic data and political pressures[21] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy Outlook - Japan's core CPI in November 2025 was 3.0%, remaining above the central bank's 2% target for 44 consecutive months[30] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates 1-2 times in 2026, each by 25 basis points, reflecting a cautious approach due to structural constraints[31] - Japan's government debt remains the highest globally, limiting the potential for significant rate increases[35] Group 3: Impact of Global Liquidity Changes - The liquidity premium is diminishing, shifting asset pricing back to fundamentals, particularly affecting U.S. equities and bonds[42] - Chinese assets are benefiting from external liquidity easing and internal profit cycles, with a focus on PPI recovery driving profit elasticity[46] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to attract capital due to their low valuation and high dividend yield, with performance increasingly dependent on domestic fundamentals[54]