南华期货沥青产业周报：冬储政策陆续出台，地缘扰动带来短期波动-20251220

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, winter storage policies were gradually introduced. A refinery in Shandong released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton for the end of March. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stronger than expected, and the futures market offered premiums and opportunities for positive arbitrage. However, major refineries in South China increased production and lowered prices, impacting the local market and even having a price advantage when transported to Northeast China considering logistics costs. Additionally, the continuous pressure from the US on Venezuela and the potential for military conflict led to supply disruptions in the asphalt raw material end, increasing asphalt price volatility [2]. - Refinery开工率 increased this week due to the resumption of production in Shandong refineries and increased production by major South China refineries, driving up overall asphalt supply. On the demand side, spot market trading improved as prices declined, but the end - of - peak - season performance in the South was not as expected. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories remained stable. Crude oil prices, the cost factor, were weakly volatile. Spot basis remained stable, consistent with the weakening demand trend. In the long - term, demand in the North will end with the drop in temperature, while the end - of - peak - season demand in the South may boost overall consumption. Overall, the peak season for asphalt did not exceed expectations. In the short - term, the focus should be on the subsequent winter storage situation of refineries and whether they will further adjust prices to stimulate purchasing. Due to geopolitical and negotiation uncertainties in the crude oil cost factor, asphalt is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The release of winter storage policies in Shandong provided a valuation anchor for the spot market. The potential for the US to promote an early end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict suppressed crude oil prices, while the increased military threat to Venezuela pushed up futures prices due to raw material shortage expectations. The US's strengthened sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause short - term disruptions to domestic refinery raw material imports [2][7]. - The increase in low - price point - of - sale resources and the release of short - term low - price contracts by some local refineries. Currently, asphalt is in the end - of - peak - season stage. A significant downward movement in asphalt prices still depends on the cost factor, crude oil. Given the current crude oil trend and refinery profits, this year's winter storage may not provide a favorable basis spread for the mid - and downstream, and there may still be a problem of insufficient volume [7]. - The expected demand impulse in the "15th Five - Year Plan" was a lackluster performance, mainly due to the persistent shortage of funds [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is expected to be bullish and volatile. Technical analysis should focus on the support level performance of BU2603. Strategy recommendations in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The basis is expected to be bearish as spot prices are weak and the demand peak is passing. The calendar spread may show a weakening seasonal trend as the basis is weak. The crack spread between asphalt and crude oil has a short - term bullish driver. Detailed strategies in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is predicted to be between 2,800 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.15%, and its historical percentile over three years is 38.97% [12]. - Risk Management Strategy Recommendations: For inventory management, if product inventories are high and there are concerns about price drops, companies can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a short - selling ratio of 25% in the range of 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 30 - 40 yuan/ton. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 25 - 35 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely Positive Information: A Shandong refinery released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton, boosting market expectations. Tensions between the US and Venezuela increased, with the possibility of military conflict [18]. - Likely Negative Information: Asphalt consumption entered the off - season, and demand was under pressure. The US urged Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline. Major South China refineries increased production and lowered prices, impacting the spot market [18]. - Domestic Asphalt Market Overview: This week, asphalt prices in Northeast and North China increased by 15 - 20 yuan/ton, while prices in Northwest, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton. In North China, limited spot resource circulation was beneficial for traders to raise prices. In the Northwest, the price of Zhenhai's rail - transported asphalt decreased, lowering the regional price center. In Shandong, the resumption of production by the main refinery increased supply and decreased demand, leading to price drops for some local brands. In East China, supply was abundant, and some prices were lowered. In South China, a major refinery significantly increased production and reduced prices for road, sea, and rail transportation to ensure smooth sales [17]. - Spot Market Outlook: Demand in the North will stop, but limited supply growth and low factory inventories will limit price drops. In the South, the end - of - peak - season demand is decreasing, and sufficient supply in South and East China is negative for asphalt prices [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Geopolitical situation changes, including Venezuela's latest crude oil shipping and arrival logistics. - Russia's crude oil export and shipping situation, the possibility of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. - Asphalt winter storage policies [20]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow: This week, asphalt futures prices showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short positions of key profitable seats in the asphalt market decreased, indicating that some institutions were more optimistic about the future. Overall, the decrease in net short positions increased the downward resistance of asphalt, and the market may continue to be volatile in the short - term [22]. - Basis Structure: This week, the asphalt basis structure showed signs of stabilization, with the futures market close to parity. The release of winter storage policies supported market activity, despite weak demand [26]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The asphalt calendar spread structure continued to weaken, in line with the approaching off - season [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As of December 18, compared with December 11, the price of coking materials in Shandong remained stable at 3,525 yuan/ton. Weak international oil prices earlier led to price drops in diesel and petroleum coke, reducing market enthusiasm for coking materials. However, later price increases in crude oil improved market trading. The mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,960 - 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand for asphalt was shrinking, and the high prices of Sinopec refineries hindered sales. On Monday, the settlement price was lowered by 100 yuan/ton, and preferential policies were introduced, increasing the enthusiasm of mid - and downstream users. Some local refineries' short - term contract prices dropped below 2,800 yuan/ton. The main local refineries introduced winter storage policies at 2,920 yuan/ton, which were well - received by end - users. This week, the price gap between asphalt and coking materials in Shandong widened to over 600 yuan/ton, slightly reducing the profitability of asphalt production. Uncertain future supply of diluted asphalt led some refineries to produce asphalt at low levels or intermittently, providing some bottom support for asphalt prices [41]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - South Korea Market: South Korean asphalt cargoes arriving in East China cost 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,280 - 3,360 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands had a premium over domestic products due to quality and specific project demand. Mid - and downstream users in East China mainly consumed inventory. Some individual brands with lower prices, such as the January cargoes with a duty - paid price of 2,950 yuan/ton in East China, were attractive to some mid - and downstream users [49]. - Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets: Singaporean asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 490 - 500 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,930 - 4,010 yuan/ton. Thai asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 4,130 - 4,210 yuan/ton. The end - of - peak - season demand in South China supported the consumption of imported resources, most of which were from previous long - term contracts. In Southeast Asia, reduced typhoon activity increased demand, gradually consuming inventory, which will support the local spot market in the future [49]. - Imported Asphalt Market Overview and Outlook: Affected by the decline in crude oil and fuel oil prices, the price of some South Korean January cargoes continued to fall [49]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 Supply and Forecast - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, from January to November 2025, China's asphalt production was 26.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina's refineries produced 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 million tons or 32%; Sinopec's refineries produced 5.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 million tons or 11%; CNOOC's asphalt production was 1.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%; and local refineries produced 13.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons or 19%. Based on the current production plan, China's asphalt production from January to December 2025 is expected to be about 28.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.79 million tons or 11%. It is expected that PetroChina's refineries will produce about 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 31%; Sinopec's refineries will produce about 6.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 million tons or 13%; CNOOC's asphalt production will be about 2.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%; and local refineries will produce about 14.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.28 million tons or 19% [52]. 3.5.2 Demand and Forecast - Demand in Central and South China was steadily released, increasing the operating rate of modified asphalt production. However, the end - of - peak - season demand in East China decreased, reducing the operating rate of modified asphalt production [71]. 3.5.3 Inventory and Forecast - In North, Northwest, and Northeast China, some social warehouses received winter storage resources, increasing the local social inventory rate. In Central China, reduced project demand in some areas and the receipt of shipping resources in some social warehouses also increased the social inventory rate [86]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for asphalt from January to November 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes [111]. 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (December 20 - 29), cumulative precipitation in northern and southwestern Xinjiang, western Gansu, southern Shaanxi, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Shandong, Jianghan, northern and western Jiangnan, South China, and eastern Southwest China will be 5 - 20 mm. In some areas of southwestern Xinjiang, southern Sichuan, Chongqing, eastern Guizhou, and Taiwan, it will be 25 - 40 mm, with local areas exceeding 50 mm. Cumulative precipitation in Northeast China and eastern Southwest China will be 40 - 80% higher than the same period of the year, with some areas more than doubling. Precipitation in most other areas of China will be significantly lower [112].