每周高频跟踪 20251220：年末地产销售小幅探涨-20251220

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the third week of December, year - end food prices continued to rise, the operating rate continued to decline, and real estate sales started the year - end sprint, but the slope was significantly lower than that of last year. In terms of inflation, the increase in the food price index narrowed, and the decline in pork prices widened. In terms of exports, container shipping prices continued a slight increase, mainly boosted by the year - end signing season. In terms of investment, cement prices increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to rising demand and price hikes in the central and southern regions, while demand in other regions remained weak. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar improved slightly. In the real estate sector, both new and second - hand housing sales increased month - on - month, and the year - end sprint slope may be similar to the rhythm of 2023. For the bond market, the economic data in November showed a continued decline in momentum, but the bond market was insensitive. There may be certain expectations for the "good start" in the first quarter of next year. In the short term, potential disturbances to the bond market sentiment such as the new regulations on fund fees still exist, but as the cross - year allocation window approaches, some allocation funds have begun to enter the market gradually. Looking forward to 2026, fiscal and macro - policies may continue to be implemented earlier, and the probability of a "good start" in data is relatively high, which may jointly suppress sentiment. Especially with the base adjustment in 2026, the inflation performance in the first quarter may further affect expectations and requires careful observation [3][37]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related: Food price increases narrowed - This week, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.8% and 1.0% week - on - week respectively, with the increase lower than last week. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the decline widened; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits increased by 1.7% week - on - week, and the increase narrowed [6][7]. Import and Export - related: Container shipping prices continued a slight increase - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 3.1% week - on - week. Affected by the year - end signing season, the spot booking prices on the North American routes continued to rise, and the freight rates on the West and East US routes increased by 11.9% and 7.3% respectively compared with last week. From December 8th to December 14th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, continuing to decline compared with the previous week. The decline of the BDI and CDFI indices widened [8][11]. Industry - related: The operating rate generally declined - The decline of coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 5.5% week - on - week. The rebar price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increasing by 0.3% week - on - week. The asphalt operating rate continued to decline, with the asphalt plant operating rate decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 27.6% week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. The increase of international copper prices converged, and the glass price continued to fall [16][20]. Investment - related: New home sales increased slightly - Cement prices continued a slight increase. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week, rising for three consecutive weeks. The transaction area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities stopped falling and rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 15.4% from December 12th to December 18th. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 5.3% week - on - week, showing a seasonal upward trend [25][28]. Consumption: Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early December decreased by 24% year - on - year - From December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of December 19th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.1% and 1.6% week - on - week respectively, continuing to fall [31].