国信期货热卷周报：情绪回暖，热卷短线反弹-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated and rebounded, and the market trend was relatively strong. The production of hot-rolled coils, rebar, and other steel products remained high, with a slowdown in the pace of production cuts. Steel demand had certain support, and the steel market profit oscillated weakly. The rebound in raw material prices drove up steel prices. The negative feedback logic in the previous market operation was suspended due to factors such as the warming of macro sentiment, and the market entered a rebound phase. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short term [36]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend: This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated briefly and continued to decline in the short term [9]. - 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend: The spot market oscillated weakly [12]. 2. Basis and Spread - 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Spread Trend: The 01 basis was -8, the 05 basis was 3, and the 10 basis was -8 [15]. - 2.2 Cold-Hot Spread: Not provided 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit: The production profit was 36, the 01 market profit was 241, the 05 market profit was 193, and the 10 market profit was 208 [22]. - 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production: The hot-rolled coil production was 291.91, the cold-rolled production was 86.09, the rebar production was 181.68, and the production of the five major steel products was 797.97 [25]. - 3.3 Raw Materials: Not provided - 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 390.72, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 163.67, the rebar inventory was 452.54, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1294.78 [30]. - 3.5 Terminal Demand: Not provided - 3.6 Export: Exports decreased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level [34]. 4. Market Outlook - The hot-rolled coil market entered a rebound phase, and the recommended strategy is short-term participation [36].