国信期货有色（镍）周报：弱势震荡，触底反弹-20251221

Report Title - "Weak Oscillation, Bottoming Out and Rebounding - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", dated December 21, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inflation data in the US in November showed a slowdown, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected and down from 3.0% in September. Core CPI also hit a new low since March 2021. In China, the CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding. The increase was related to the rise in food prices [33]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding this week. Refined nickel prices first fell and then rose, and nickel inventories were at a high level compared to the same period. There were supply disturbances as the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia might be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. The nickel ore market was affected by the rainy season, with unstable shipments in the Philippines and relatively loose supply in Indonesia. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand and rising costs, but its medium - term sustainability was weak. In the stainless - steel market, approaching the year - end off - season, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand was poor, and inventory reduction was slow. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was approximately 113,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract, it was about 12,300 to 13,200 yuan/ton [33]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - Focused on the price trend of the nickel futures main contract, presenting a data chart of the nickel futures closing price (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [6][7] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Showed the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports, presenting a data chart of the Chinese nickel ore port inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 tons [9][10] 2.2 - 2.4 Midstream - 2.2: Presented the price of electrolytic nickel, showing a data chart of the electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) price from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [12][13] - 2.3: Presented the price of nickel sulfate, showing a data chart of the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [14][15] - 2.4: Presented the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, showing data charts of the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [16][17] 2.5 - 2.8 Downstream - 2.5: Covered the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel. It presented data charts of the stainless - steel futures closing price (continuous), stainless - steel futures positions, and Wuxi stainless - steel inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of yuan/ton, lots, and tons respectively [18][21][24] - 2.6: Presented the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [26][27] - 2.7: Presented the monthly output of new - energy vehicles, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese new - energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] Part 3: Future Outlook - Analyzed the inflation data in the US and China, and the market conditions of nickel and stainless steel. Predicted the operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [33]