有色金属行业周报：铜矿长协加工费降至0，铜价或迎来新一轮上涨-20251221

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a potential new round of copper price increases due to the long-term processing fee for copper mines being set at $0 per ton, which raises expectations for reduced smelting output [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on various metals including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The LME copper price closed at $11,870.5 per ton, up 1.58% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at 93,000 yuan per ton, down 0.61% week-on-week. The processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 was set at $0 per ton, leading to expectations of price elasticity under supply constraints [2][3] - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,955.5 per ton, up 2.80% week-on-week, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, up 0.32% week-on-week. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity and improved logistics in Xinjiang, while also highlighting the need to monitor inventory levels as demand transitions to a weaker seasonal phase [3] - Tin: As of December 19, the SHFE tin main contract was at 343,040 yuan per ton, up 3.88% week-on-week. Supply risks from conflict-affected regions have tightened raw material availability, while domestic inventory is increasing due to high prices and subdued demand [9] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: COMEX gold and silver closed at $4,354.0 and $66.8 per ounce, respectively, with increases of 1.25% and 8.85% week-on-week. The report indicates a long-term bullish trend for gold prices driven by central bank and ETF accumulation [2] Strategic Metals - Rare Earths: As of December 19, prices for praseodymium and terbium oxides were 576,000 and 607,500 yuan per ton, respectively. The report notes strict adjustments in rare earth smelting due to regulatory controls, with potential for price increases if export orders recover significantly [10] - Cobalt: The price of cobalt is around 410,000 yuan per ton, with a tight supply of raw materials. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on cobalt prices due to supply constraints [11]