Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving applications. The global semiconductor sales for January to October 2025 are projected to be approximately $612.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with China's semiconductor sales at about $169.4 billion, up 12.5% [1][22] - The global semiconductor market size is forecasted to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific region's market size expected to be around $370.6 billion, growing by 9.8% [1][22] - The expansion of wafer production capacity is accelerating, particularly in advanced processes, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028 for global 12-inch wafer monthly capacity, expected to reach 11.1 million pieces by 2028 [2][26] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is increasing due to data centers and AI processors, with the global semiconductor materials market expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][30] - The advanced process requires higher performance parameters for electronic chemicals, leading to a concentration of industry competition towards leading suppliers capable of meeting these demands [4][32] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market - AI demand is driving global semiconductor sales growth, with projections for 2025 indicating a significant increase in both global and Chinese markets [1][22] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow to $700.9 billion in 2025, with a further increase to $760.7 billion in 2026 [1][22] Wafer Production Capacity - The global semiconductor wafer production capacity is set to expand significantly, particularly in advanced processes, with a CAGR of 14% for 7nm and below processes from 2024 to 2028 [2][26] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow to $70 billion in 2025, with a notable increase in China's market size to approximately 174.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year growth [3][30] Electronic Chemicals - The advanced semiconductor processes require higher purity and stability in electronic chemicals, leading to a competitive landscape favoring top suppliers with technological and scale advantages [4][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in semiconductor materials, particularly those with strong technological capabilities and deep ties to downstream wafer manufacturers [34]
基础化工行业周报(20251215-20251219):先进制程扩产加速,持续看好半导体材料国产化进程-20251221