Xiangcai Securities·2025-12-21 03:36Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive driven by policy, demand, and technology [9][28] - Recent clinical trial approvals for innovative vaccines by companies like Zhifei Biological, Kangtai Biological, Wantai Biological, and CanSino indicate significant advancements in the field, particularly in addressing emerging infectious diseases and specific patient populations [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a relative decline, with a 12-month absolute return of -14% and a relative return of -28% compared to the CSI 300 index [4][5] - The vaccine index closed at 11,363.86, down 0.87% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector saw a slight decline of 0.14% [5][11] Market Review - The vaccine sector's performance has been lagging, with a cumulative decline of 10.1% since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [5][11] - Notable companies in the vaccine sector include Liaoning Chengda, Hualan Biological, and Kangtai Biological, which have shown better performance compared to others like Kanghua Biological and CanSino [6][11] Valuation - The vaccine sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 92.32X, reflecting a decrease of 0.74X week-on-week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.79X, also showing a slight decline [7][11] - The PE ratio is at the 56.20% percentile since 2013, while the PB ratio is at the 1.36% percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [7][11] Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is under pressure, with companies focusing on pipeline adjustments and innovation to enhance competitiveness. Long-term prospects hinge on innovation and international expansion [8][9] - Companies with strong research and development capabilities and differentiated product offerings, such as CanSino and Kanghua Biological, are recommended for investment [9][28]