2026年A股增量资金展望：中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势

Group 1 - The core narrative for A-shares in 2025 is "asymmetric upside returns and limited downside risks," supported by regulatory measures and insurance capital to curb index declines, while domestic deposit migration and overseas dollar inflows create upward potential for indices [10][11][18] - In 2025, the inflow of external funds remains in the early stages, with limited participation from residents and foreign investors, despite a recovery in risk appetite [10][11][13] - The report highlights that the investment willingness of urban depositors has improved since Q3 2024, but remains at low absolute levels, indicating a gradual recovery in risk appetite [10][25][40] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates a continuation of the supportive role of insurance capital and regulation, with a more pronounced migration of deposits, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, and increased foreign investment [10][36] - Factors supporting resident capital inflow include reduced market volatility due to insurance and regulatory backing, easing pressure on household balance sheets, and a higher degree of liquidity in deposits [10][36][40] - The report notes that the current environment offers limited high-yield alternatives to stocks, enhancing the attractiveness of the equity market [10][58] Group 3 - The report indicates that the migration of deposits among high-net-worth individuals is accelerating, with significant new registrations in private equity funds, reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [10][61] - External factors include a potential increase in global capital allocation to non-US assets due to downward pressure on the dollar, alongside expectations of improving fundamentals in A-shares [10][68] - The report emphasizes that A-shares are at a turning point in the profit cycle, with expectations for fundamental improvements in 2026, which could attract more foreign capital [10][75][82]