宏观经济周报：年末放缓，质量上扬-20251221

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]