Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-21 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the valuation reassessment of shopping centers and the new opportunities in the housing market [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on product quality and service enhancement while maintaining market balance [2][26]. - Recent data shows a rebound in new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities reaching 3.095 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3% [2][3]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises amid a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.095 million square meters, up 26.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 24.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 50.5% [3][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in December show a 30% year-on-year decline, with first and second-tier cities down 29.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 38.8% [5][6]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.192 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.4%, but a year-on-year decline of 32.9% for December [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.28 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through three main measures: controlling supply, promoting enterprise transformation, and reforming foundational systems [26][29]. - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Shandong, are implementing targeted policies to mitigate financial risks and stimulate housing demand through initiatives like "old-for-new" housing exchanges [26][30]. Company Updates - Poly Developments plans to issue 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, while Vanke's proposals for extending medium-term notes were not approved [36][37]. - Yuexiu Property secured a 50 million HKD loan from a bank, with a maximum term of 18 months [36].