银行周报（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）：11月收支表：债券投资增长提速，中小银行面临存款流失-20251221

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a trend of deposit migration from small and medium-sized banks to larger banks, with a notable increase in financial bonds issued by large banks due to capital replenishment needs [2][3] - On the asset side, there is a slowdown in long-term loans from large banks and a significant reduction in short-term loans from small banks, attributed to risk considerations and weak consumer loan demand [4] Summary by Sections 1. November Income and Expenditure Table - Personal deposits decreased by 106.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with demand for both current and fixed-term savings declining [3] - Corporate deposits saw a year-on-year decrease of 49.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fixed-term deposits from large banks [3] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 10.6 billion yuan, indicating a trend of residents moving their deposits from small banks to larger banks [3] - Financial bonds increased by 160.4 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by large banks issuing more perpetual bonds and TLAC bonds [3] 2. Asset Side Analysis - Total loans decreased by 421.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans seeing a significant reduction of 241.6 billion yuan [4] - Large banks experienced a larger decrease in long-term loans, with a year-on-year reduction of 291.8 billion yuan, influenced by weaker real estate sales [4] - Bond investments increased by 525.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks growing their bond investments by 159.3 billion yuan and 366 billion yuan respectively [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank [4] 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Industrial Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Changshu Bank [4] 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [4]