Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-12-21 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a disturbance in raw material supply, leading to differentiated performance in rebar and wire rod prices. The recent policy changes regarding coal export tariffs and the implementation of export licenses for steel products are expected to impact supply dynamics and pricing [9][12]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various steel products as of December 19, 2025. For instance, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar rose to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 2.2% increase from the previous week [9][16]. - The report indicates a rise in steel profits, with margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 32 CNY/ton, 23 CNY/ton, and 9 CNY/ton respectively [9][33]. - Inventory levels for major steel products have decreased, with total social inventory dropping by 351,800 tons to 9,054,600 tons as of December 19, 2025 [9][33]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 19, 2025, domestic steel prices have increased, with notable price changes across various products, including rebar and hot-rolled steel [9][16]. - The report details specific price movements, such as a 70 CNY/ton increase for rebar and a 50 CNY/ton increase for high-speed wire [9][17]. Profit Situation - The report estimates an increase in steel profits, with significant improvements in margins for both long and short process steel production [9][33]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 7.98 million tons, with a notable drop in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [9][33]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation and earnings forecast for key companies, all of which are rated as "Buy." For example, Hualing Steel is projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19 [2][3].