Guoxin Securities·2025-12-21 07:53Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with a focus on innovation and opportunities for turnaround [3][5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for 2026, emphasizing four main investment themes: cost benefits from low raw material prices, efficiency improvements through supply chain optimization, innovation-driven growth, and potential recovery in the liquor sector [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector (A-shares and H-shares) rose by 1.97% this week, with A-shares outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.29 percentage points [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were: Huanlejia (44.42%), Zhuangyuan Ranch (35.96%), Huangshi Group (21.16%), Junyao Health (17.02%), and Sunshine Dairy (14.72%) [1]. Subsector Analysis - Liquor: Demand remains weak, with premium liquor companies focusing on supply-side optimization. Recommended stocks include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai [2][10]. - Beverages: The beverage sector shows continued growth, with strong performance from leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage. The report recommends these companies for their market expansion and innovation capabilities [2][14]. - Food: The snack segment is highlighted for its strong growth potential, particularly in konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi recommended for their competitive advantages [2][11]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai: Rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 72.12 CNY for 2025 and 75.79 CNY for 2026 [4]. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Also rated "Outperform the Market," with an estimated EPS of 9.73 CNY for 2025 and 10.22 CNY for 2026 [4]. - Dongpeng Beverage: Rated "Outperform the Market," with an estimated EPS of 8.85 CNY for 2025 and 11.21 CNY for 2026 [4]. - Weidong: Rated "Outperform the Market," with an estimated EPS of 0.61 CNY for 2025 and 0.74 CNY for 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have shown strong performance and growth potential [15].