GF SECURITIES·2025-12-21 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A and H shares, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition plan has been finalized, significantly increasing the company's resources and further enhancing its competitive advantages [1]. - The acquisition involves purchasing 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total consideration of RMB 133.6 billion, which includes RMB 40.08 billion in shares and RMB 93.52 billion in cash [7]. - The transaction is expected to increase the company's coal resources by 269 billion tons and enhance its operational capacity, with a projected increase in net profit of 13.4% for 2024 and 11.6% for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from RMB 343.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 310.46 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -0.4% in 2023 and -8.2% in 2025 [2][11]. - EBITDA is expected to decrease from RMB 116.81 billion in 2023 to RMB 97.96 billion in 2025, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from RMB 59.69 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.29 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 20.3% in 2023 [11][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from RMB 3.00 in 2023 to RMB 2.63 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4 in 2023 [2][11]. Resource and Capacity Expansion - The acquisition will add significant coal production capacity of over 1.9 million tons and increase the company's coal and polyolefin output by approximately 185 million tons and 1.28 million tons, respectively [7]. - The company will also gain additional power generation capacity of 1.325 million kilowatts through the acquisition [7]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable value of RMB 46.85 per share for A shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H shares based on a projected P/E ratio of 17 times for 2026 [7].