BZ、Eb周报：维持底部区间震荡-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene is expected to experience a bottom reversal with a weak - then - strong rhythm in 2026. The market was weak in 2025 due to high import pressure, unfulfilled blending oil expectations, and downstream demand negative feedback. In 2026, these factors are expected to improve marginally, but short - term high inventory and supply contradictions remain prominent. The price is likely to be under pressure in Q1 2026, with potential for a bottom - price rebound in Q2, and the second half of the year depends on domestic macro - policies [3][90]. - The processing fee of styrene is expected to maintain a medium - to - high level in 2026. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain supports its price. However, the high inventory of downstream 3S products may lead to negative feedback if the demand in the traditional peak season in H1 2026 is not as expected or export momentum weakens [3][90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure Benzene Domestic: In December 2025, 110,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and the same amount is expected in January 2026. Major maintenance includes Sinochem Quanzhou, Lida, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong refineries may increase production after solving quota issues. In January, pay attention to the new production from BASF Zhanjiang [3][90]. - Pure Benzene Import: External market pressure remains high, with high selling pressure from South Korea in November - December 2025. The import volume is expected to be around 450,000 tons in January 2026, and the import volume after February is to be evaluated [3][90]. - Styrene: 85,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance in December 2025, and 65,000 tons in January 2026. After December, the plant operation will gradually resume, and pay attention to the production increase from Shandong Guoen Chemical [3][90]. - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. 40,000 tons of capacity are expected to be under maintenance in December 2025, and 60,000 tons in January 2026. Pay attention to the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January [3][90]. - Phenol: The operation rate is gradually rising. 30,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance in December 2025, and 10,000 tons in January 2026. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [3][90]. - Aniline: 70,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance in December 2025, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation rate in January may be lower than expected [3][90]. Demand - Styrene Downstream 3S Hard Rubber: Terminal home appliance demand has slightly recovered as it enters the year - end procurement season, but 3S products still face high - inventory problems [3][90]. Valuation - Absolute Price Valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [3][90]. - EB Processing Fee: The processing fee is expected to expand in the short term [3][90]. Strategies - Unilateral: The market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation [3][90]. - Inter - period: There is no relevant strategy at present [3][90]. - Cross - variety: Continue to hold the PX - BZ position [3][90].