Guohai Securities·2025-12-21 08:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with domestic policies remaining positive and downstream demand showing resilience. Aluminum ingots continue to demonstrate inventory reduction, while prices remain stable at high levels. However, as demand transitions into the off-season, there may be pressure on aluminum water conversion rates, necessitating ongoing monitoring of inventory performance [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains optimistic due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, suggesting sustained high industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 19, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,945.0 per ton, up $70.0 from the previous week, marking a 2.4% increase week-on-week and a 16.4% increase year-on-year [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 22,185.0 yuan per ton, up 15.0 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a 0.1% week-on-week increase and an 11.3% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21,840.0 yuan per ton, down 230.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.0% decrease week-on-week, but up 10.6% year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, a decrease of 346,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [53] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 28.74, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.54, PE ratio 11.3, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.21, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00, PE ratio 14.2, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 26.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13, PE ratio 12.4, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH): Price 10.85, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84, PE ratio 12.8, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 29.23, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88, PE ratio 15.5, Investment rating: Buy [5]