国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week. The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were flat compared to last week, with a regional price difference of 10 yuan/cubic meter. Other specifications also showed no price changes [4]. - The market saw a low - level rebound in the futures market, and the port inventory decreased. As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 14, there were 20 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 7 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 5 in January, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.54 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 3,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2918 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 396,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 173,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 125,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9872 million cubic meters, a decrease of 125,500 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow this week. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7.5 yuan/cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of December 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2023.00 points, a decrease of 182 points (- 8.3%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 746 points, a decrease of 7.3% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1552.92 points, an increase of 3.1% from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.042, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.9% to 1.737 [6][55].