能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20251221

Report Overview - The report is a weekly C3 industry chain report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated December 21, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG - Short - term trend is weak. Supply increases slightly while demand remains mixed. Long - term, the propane market is expected to be looser in 2026, with downward pressure on prices [3][4] Propylene - There are expectations of reduced supply and increased demand in the short - term, providing support for the price. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound [6] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices show regional differentiation, with import costs weakening. Propane prices are weak this week. The propane internal - external price spread has been quickly restored and is currently at a relatively high level year - on - year [9][35] Supply - US LPG shipments are relatively stable, while Middle East LPG shipments are tight with delays. The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.8 tons (+0.8%), with civil gas at 21.8 tons (-0.3%). The propane supply in China is 53.55 tons, a 18.08% week - on - week decrease [45][52][67] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH and MTBE operating rates have both increased. LPG inventory is generally lower year - on - year, and there has been destocking this week at refineries and ports [82][84][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The upstream cost of propane has weakened, and propylene prices have declined from stable. PDH profits have improved significantly week - on - week. Downstream prices are generally weak, with PP profits showing some repair and PO and butanol - octanol profits declining [111][113] Balance Sheet - Supply: PDH is deeply in the red, but the willingness to shut down is currently limited. The operating rate is expected to remain at a medium - high level in December and decline in the first quarter. Demand: The powder - propylene price spread has improved, but PP powder external procurement plants remain shut down due to losses. Overall, the propylene supply - demand pressure in Shandong is still high in December and is expected to improve in January [134][157] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 74.1% (-0.1%). Refinery operations are relatively stable, ethylene cracking operating rates have decreased slightly, PDH operating rates have increased by 2.1% to 75.0%, and MTO operating rates have decreased slightly to 89.5% [164][181][187] Demand - PP operating rate is 79.4% (+1.1%), but profits continue to decline. PP powder operating rate is 36.9% (-2.6%), and the powder - propylene price spread has improved, yet plants remain shut down. PO operating rate is 76.1% (+0.3%), acrylonitrile operating rate remains flat at 80.6%, acrylic acid operating rate is 79.4% (-0.3%), n - butanol operating rate is 67.8% (+9.3%), octanol operating rate is 82.0% (+5.0%), phenol - ketone operating rate is 76.0% (-3.5%), and ECH operating rate is 48.4% (+0.9%) [202][218][227] Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventories show little change. Inventories of other downstream products such as phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile also have minor fluctuations [280][290][291]