GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-21 08:47Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several construction companies, highlighting their potential for high returns based on expected dividend yields and low valuations [9][32]. Core Insights - The current policy environment is driving an increase in insurance capital allocation to the stock market, with a notable acceleration in Q3 this year. Insurance capital is favoring construction stocks with high ROE, high dividend yields, and low valuations, particularly focusing on companies like China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2][14]. - It is estimated that the construction sector will receive an additional allocation of 28.6 billion yuan by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value. Key A-share stocks recommended include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3% yield), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others, while H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][8][32]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Trends - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance capital in China reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The allocation to stocks and funds was 3.6 trillion and 2.0 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 15.5% of total investments, with a significant increase noted in Q3 [2][22]. - The top three construction stocks held by insurance capital are China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge, which together account for 75% of the insurance capital's construction sector holdings [2][22]. Expected Capital Allocation - The projected allocation of insurance capital to the construction sector is estimated at 50.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 79.4 billion yuan in 2026, with an incremental increase of 28.6 billion yuan in 2026 [3][28]. - The overall allocation ratio for the construction sector is expected to rise from 1.31% in 2025 to 1.60% in 2026, driven by the sector's attractive dividend yield compared to other sectors [3][28]. Recommended Stocks - Key A-share stocks with expected dividend yields over 5% include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3%), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others. H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][29][32]. - The report also highlights semiconductor cleanroom leaders such as Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI investment wave [1][8][32].