能源化工聚烯烃周报-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Plastic - This week, the supply elasticity of price reduction has not been realized yet. At the end of the year, the supply increases while the demand weakens, putting pressure on prices. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is under pressure [5]. Polypropylene - In the off - season, the price is under pressure, and there may be marginal changes in PDH on the supply side. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the market supply - demand pattern is still not optimistic [92]. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has not strengthened significantly. The low price in North China has continued to decline, and East and South China have made up for the decline. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates around - 50, and the warehouse receipts remain high at a stable level. The import window is compressed, and the non - standard import profit is at a relatively high level within the year [5]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%. The domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. The current maintenance scale in December has declined. It is expected that the supply will remain in a loose state. The import volume may still be high at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [5]. Demand & Inventory - The agricultural film start - up rate continues to decline, and the packaging film festival effect has gradually subsided. The downstream raw material inventory is maintained at a low level, and the demand for raw materials is expected to decrease. The inventory removal of the PE as a whole is not smooth, the upstream factory inventory has accumulated slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis fluctuates weakly, and the month spread strengthens slightly. The overseas price of PP rebounds and then falls back, and the import window tends to close [94]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The planned maintenance volume at the end of the year declines, and the supply center is high. The short - term PP import volume is limited, and the export volume is expected to maintain the basic level in the short term [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate is temporarily stable, but the orders of plastic weaving, pipes and other industries have weakened seasonally. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory, and the raw material procurement is sluggish. The inventory removal of PP as a whole is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period of last year [93].