螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - Expected boost has led to a rebound in steel prices [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Macro - environment - Overseas: Interest rates were cut as scheduled in December, releasing liquidity [5][9] - Domestic: The Central Economic Work Conference re - emphasized "anti - involution", and state - owned enterprises were required to resist "involution - style" competition, creating a generally warm macro - environment. Policy expectations were reignited, and coking coal near the cost line rebounded rapidly [5][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Demand has entered the off - season, steel inventories are high, seasonal maintenance has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is difficult, suppressing the overall rebound height of steel prices. Negative feedback dominates the industrial logic [5][13] 3. Rebar (Thread Steel) 3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3120 (+38) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 180 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 1 (-21) yuan/ton [20] 3.2 Demand - New - home sales remained at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remained high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low [24] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed low supply and demand, and healthy inventory. The short - and long - process production and inventory data presented different trends [27][28] 3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 159 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-33) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [33] 4. Hot - rolled Coil 4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3276 (+36) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was - 6 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 7 (-1) yuan/ton [38] 4.2 Demand - Demand from the home appliance and automobile industries was poor, and the peak season was not prosperous. After January 1st next year, new steel export regulations will be implemented, restricting "paid - for" exports. In the short term, there will be an increase in rush - to - export, resulting in a stronger near - term and weaker far - term price spread [39][40] 4.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed high hot - rolled coil inventory, and production cuts were being made to reduce inventory [45][46] 4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 35 (+12) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-55) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [51] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The report presented data on spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc. over different time periods [53][54] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc. were provided, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [62][63][65] 7. Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate were presented, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [68]