铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251221

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting upward. Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, reaching a high of 21,395 on the night of Friday. On the supply side, as the weather turns cold in winter, the output of social scrap aluminum gradually decreases, the market circulation of goods tightens, and holders increase their price support and reluctance to sell. Near the Spring Festival stockpiling, some enterprises face difficulties in replenishing stocks, and their in-plant raw material inventories are low. On the demand side, the demand in the automotive industry has weakened marginally. Constrained by insufficient orders, the operating rate of downstream die-casting factories has declined, and they mainly purchase on a just-in-time basis. Overall, the shortage pattern of scrap aluminum supply remains unchanged, and there are still constraints on imports and recycling. The rigid cost provides some support for prices, but the lack of demand weakens the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, prices may fluctuate at a high level. [6] - As of December 19, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.06 million tons from the previous week to 13.02 million tons, and the visible inventory remained at a high level. From December 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Due to the continued boom in the automotive market in December last year, the automotive market showed weak performance this December under the high base effect, and the demand is gradually under pressure. At the same time, in some regions, the national subsidy funds are relatively scarce, which has created a large overdraft effect, and some consumers face the absence of subsidy policies. The market still has good expectations for automobile consumption next year. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that next year, the implementation of the "two new" policies will be optimized, which means that the national subsidy policy for consumer goods will continue to be promoted. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data on trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9] Trading End - Arbitrage - Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation: For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (within the warehouse receipt system), taking the AD2601 and AD2602 contracts as an example, the fixed cost is 9.42 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 90.43 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 100 yuan/ton [12] - Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation: The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking the Baotai Group's latest quotation of 21,200 yuan/ton as a reference, after calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost is 22,138.8 yuan/ton [13][14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap Aluminum Production and Inventory: Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] - Scrap Aluminum Price: The prices of waste automobile wheels, waste motorcycle wheels, and broken aluminum in different regions are presented, and the price trends of Shanghai machine - made aluminum and broken aluminum in Foshan are shown [24][26] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - Price and Spread: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [30][35] - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional proportion are presented [40][44][45] - Cost and Profit: The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently estimated to be in a loss state. The cost structure and profit trends of ADC12 are shown [46][47][50] - Inventory and Import: The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [51][56] - Recycled Aluminum Rod: The production, inventory, and their regional proportions of recycled aluminum rods are presented [59][60][61][62] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales rush stage, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the inventory warning index of automobiles [65][66]