工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动，多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions. The inventory has decreased, and the supply is expected to decline from December. The demand from downstream remains weak, and the short - term emotional speculation may drive up the price, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the expected trading range next week between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon plants are recommended for selling hedging [1][7][8][9]. - Polysilicon: The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is currently in a pattern of inventory accumulation. The establishment of the platform company boosts market confidence, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the expected trading range next week between 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon plants are recommended for selling hedging [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas of industrial silicon and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses have remained relatively stable from December 1 to December 19, 2025 [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - The weekly industrial silicon inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons, with a 0.8 - million - ton decrease in social inventory and a 0.55 - million - ton increase in factory inventory. The production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia decreased this week, and the overall weekly production decreased slightly. In the southwest region, entering the dry season, the cost is estimated to be between 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton, and the local production capacity continues to decline. Although some Xinjiang factories resumed production, the scale of production reduction in the southwest is larger, resulting in a decrease in the overall production from November to December [3][12]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Price and Market: This week, the polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely, with the center of gravity rising, and the spot price was stable. The upstream quotation was firm, and the downstream had a small amount of restocking [2]. - Supply: The weekly production decreased slightly in the short term. Although some factories resumed production in December, the overall monthly production did not decrease significantly. The production in November was 114,600 tons, and it is expected to be 113,500 tons in December. The current factory inventory has reached 300,000 tons, and the cost is expected to rise compared to October [4]. - Demand: The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers decreased, mainly affected by the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which can support the firm quotation [4]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Price and Market: The average price of DMC has fluctuated, and the industry's monthly operating rate has shown a certain trend. The production in December increased after some monomer plants resumed production after maintenance. Enterprises have been reducing production to support prices since December, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified. Considering the off - season demand and high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to follow through [3][23][25]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly production of DMC and its year - on - year change are presented, and the factory inventory shows a seasonal pattern [26]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Price and Market: The price of recycled aluminum ADC12 shows a seasonal pattern, and the monthly operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry has changed over time. Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon reasonably, with high purchasing enthusiasm at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [3][26]. - Profit and Sales: The average profit of the recycled aluminum industry is calculated, and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles shows a seasonal pattern [27][28].