锌产业链周度报告-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is relatively balanced around the 23,000 level, waiting for new drivers, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is decreasing, and the consumption situation is weak. The overseas squeeze - out market is over, and short - term prices may enter a consolidation phase. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices [5]. - The zinc mine expansion cycle is coming to an end. Next year, the increase in global zinc mines is limited, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Data Changes - Price and Spread - The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,065, with a weekly decline of 2.29%. The closing price of the night session was 23,070, with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,078, with a weekly decline of 1.94% [6]. - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and the SHFE zinc contango structure flattened [17][19]. - Inventory - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,104 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4,560 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons; the LME zinc inventory increased by 37,975 tons; the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Globally, the total visible zinc inventory increased significantly [35]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 125,408 lots, and the open interest decreased by 44,565 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 decreased by 9,880 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,962 lots [6]. - The domestic open interest is at the median of the same period in history [36]. 2. Industry Chain Analysis - Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have decreased [8]. - Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows [10]. - Mining enterprise profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11]. - Operating Rate - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc operating rates have declined and are at the median of the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide operating rates have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [13]. 3. Supply - side Analysis - Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, while domestic zinc mine production has decreased [39]. - Imported ore processing fees have decreased, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly [39]. - The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [40]. - Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history [46][47]. - Zinc alloy production is at a high level [47]. 4. Demand - side Analysis - Refined Zinc Consumption - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - Downstream Industry - The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [55]. - The raw - material and finished - product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [58][61]. - Terminal Demand - The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [71]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity show different trends, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [74][75][77].