能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Overseas raw material prices are high, supporting rubber prices, but China's natural rubber inventory continues to accumulate significantly, with notable inventory pressure and low market acceptance of high - priced rubber. Under the game between long and short positions, rubber prices are expected to show a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to November 2025 increased year - on - year, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 8.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the export amount reaching 153.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In November, the output of rubber tire casings decreased year - on - year [5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of tires in the United States increased year - on - year, but the import volume from China decreased [6]. - The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) approved an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote measures to stabilize rubber prices, aiming to digest 250,000 tons of rubber annually [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign rubber prices fluctuated slightly, with RU slightly falling and NR, SGX TSR20, and JPX RSS3 slightly rising. As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%; the closing price of NR2605 was 12,390 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [9][11]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region has entered the rainy season with recent decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in the northeast has ended with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [37][39]. - Raw material prices: The suspension of tapping in domestic production areas is accelerating, and overseas raw material prices are high due to the continuous tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia [41]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports to China increased month - on - month. Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month in November, and exports to China decreased significantly [61][64][67][73][75]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. In November, tire exports increased slightly month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales increased slightly month - on - month in October. Passenger car sales continued to grow in November, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. In November, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [85][90][91]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: As of December 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.1529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.50%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86% [101]. - Futures inventory: As of December 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.94%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [103]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Market outlook: The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. High overseas raw material prices support rubber prices, but China's large - scale inventory accumulation puts pressure on the market, resulting in low acceptance of high - priced rubber [106][107]. - Valuation: On Friday, the price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 2,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 720 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [108]. - Supply strategy: For the single - side strategy of RU, it is recommended to wait and see; for the inter - period strategy, a long - short spread between January and May contracts is suggested as the peak production period may put more pressure on the May contract; for the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to observe [109].