国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20251221

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded significantly, but due to the escalating situation in Venezuela, traders were worried about geopolitical risks and reduced their提货, leading to a significant increase in local inventories and a sharp drop in discounts. Asphalt deviated from the strong oil price and remained at a low level [4]. - The domestic asphalt processing theoretical profit averaged -355 yuan/ton this week, a week-on-week increase of 98 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated in the range of 3081 - 3086 yuan/ton, and the decline of the average spot price of asphalt slowed down this week, with a narrower price fluctuation range [4]. - The strategy includes a low - level operation of the BU - SC crack spread [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - Supply: From December 11 - 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. Although some major refineries in East and South China resumed production and increased asphalt production, some refineries in Shandong intermittently switched to producing residual oil, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization [4]. - Demand: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.9%. The shipment volume decreased significantly in East China and Shandong. In Shandong, local refineries stopped producing asphalt, and the overall supply declined. Coupled with the impact of rain and snow, the demand was weak, and the refinery shipment was average. In East China, the main refineries intermittently reduced production, and the high price suppressed the enthusiasm of traders to purchase, leading to a decrease in shipment volume [4]. 2. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also factors such as raw material supply, substitution, import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight rates. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, for example, Ma Rui crude oil has a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - Price and Spread Charts: The report provides multiple price and spread charts, including the relationship between futures - disk price, trading volume, and open interest, the relationship between spot heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil, and the relationship between basis and monthly spread [9][11][12]. 3. Fundamental Data - Demand - Consumption Distribution: Asphalt demand is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the volume of some markets is small and the impact is limited [21]. - Downstream Shipment: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.9%. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 7.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26]. - Supply - Supply Pattern: Asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including major refineries and local refineries) and imports. Different regions and types of refineries have different characteristics, and factors such as inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules affect supply [27]. - Output, Maintenance and Raw Materials: In January 2026, the planned production volume of domestic asphalt refineries was 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 tons (a decrease of 12.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 289,000 tons (a decrease of 21.5%). As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 635,000 tons, a 1.6% increase from December 15. The total inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.023 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from December 15 [30]. - Start - up: The report provides the weekly start - up rate charts of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, including the total start - up rate and the start - up rate in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, and Northeast China [32][34][36]. - Inventory: The report provides the weekly inventory rate charts of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions, including the total inventory rate and the inventory rate in North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, Northeast China, and South China [42].