铜产业链周度报告-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in copper prices is gradually emerging. The lack of resonance logic may limit the upside space for prices. However, the long - term supply shortage logic still holds, and the long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong. Short - term adjustments in copper prices will provide good entry points for long - term buying. [7] - It is recommended to adopt the main trading mode of buying on dips. In terms of spread trading, the spread between COMEX and LME is weakening, the positive arbitrage opportunity between LME and SHFE is weakening, but the domestic Contango structure is obvious, and risk - free arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. At the same time, there is a profit margin for current spot exports, and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: SHFE and INE copper volatility expanded, while LME and COMEX copper volatility declined. LME copper price volatility was around 13%, down from the previous week; SHFE copper volatility was around 16%, with a relatively large increase from the previous week. [11] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot premium declined. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread on December 19 was - 180 yuan/ton, weaker than - 90 yuan/ton on December 12; the LME 0 - 3 premium on December 19 was 4.73 US dollars/ton, lower than the premium of 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 12; the COMEX near - end C structure narrowed. [17] - Position: LME, SHFE, and INE copper positions decreased. Among them, SHFE copper positions decreased by 15,000 lots to 631,900 lots. [19] - Fund and Industry Position: LME commercial short net positions decreased from 83,100 lots on December 5 to 78,600 lots on December 12; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 53,400 lots on December 2 to 62,500 lots on December 9. [25] - Spot Premium and Discount: The domestic copper spot premium and discount weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rebounded. The domestic copper spot discount dropped from a discount of 20 yuan/ton on December 12 to a discount of 160 yuan/ton on December 19; the Yangshan Port copper premium rose from 41 US dollars/ton on December 12 to 43 US dollars/ton on December 19. [30] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory increased from 803,400 tons on December 11 to 816,600 tons on December 18. The domestic social inventory increased from 163,000 tons on December 11 to 165,800 tons on December 18; the bonded area inventory increased from 75,500 tons on December 11 to 76,600 tons on December 18; the COMEX inventory increased from 450,600 short tons on December 12 to 466,200 short tons on December 19; the LME copper inventory decreased from 165,900 tons on December 12 to 160,400 tons on December 19. [31][36] - Position - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - inventory ratio fluctuated, and the SHFE copper position - inventory ratio was at a low level in the same period of history, indicating a lack of driving logic in overseas spot markets. [37] 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, and processing fees remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates increased from 664,000 tons on December 12 to 680,000 tons on December 19. The processing fees of copper concentrates remained weak, and the smelting loss expanded from 2,084 yuan/ton on December 12 to 2,110 yuan/ton on December 19. [42] - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports increased year - on - year, and domestic production increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%; in September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper expanded and was higher than the break - even point; the import loss of recycled copper narrowed. [43][48] - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports increased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. In October, blister copper imports were 55,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.18%. In November, blister copper processing fees rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 1,250 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [52] - Refined Copper: Refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the import loss of copper spot expanded. In November, the production of refined copper was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. In November, refined copper imports were 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The import loss of copper spot expanded from a loss of 1,260.23 yuan/ton on December 12 to a loss of 1,304.76 yuan/ton on December 19. [54] 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In November, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month, but were at a low level in the same period of history. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded, but were at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of December 18, the operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally. [59] - Profit: The processing fees of copper rods were at a low level in the same period of history, and the processing fees of copper tubes rebounded. As of December 19, the processing fees of copper rods for the power industry in East China were 275 yuan/ton, lower than 385 yuan/ton on December 12. On December 19, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fees of R410A - dedicated copper tubes was 5,205 yuan/ton, higher than 5,107 yuan/ton on December 12. The processing fees of copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils remained stable at a low level. [64] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history; the weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable remained at a low level. [65] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. In November, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history; the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. [68] 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic actual copper consumption performed well. From January to October, the cumulative consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%; from January to October, the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries were important supports for copper consumption. The growth rate of power grid investment slowed down. From January to October, the cumulative power grid investment was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, but it was at a relatively high level in history. [74] - Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production: In October, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.1326 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.92%; in October, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.05%. [76]