东南亚指数双周报第14期：马来领涨，越南走弱-20251221

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF increased by 1.59%, outperforming China, India, the US, Japan, and Latin America, but underperforming Africa and the UK[6] - Southeast Asia Technology ETF decreased by 4.76%, lagging behind the overall Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[6] Group 2: Country-Specific ETF Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, with stable market conditions but structural consumption pressures[7] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF declined by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, due to cautious market sentiment from divided business confidence[7] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF rose by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited effects of monetary easing and structural growth challenges[7] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by currency appreciation and external capital inflows[7] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, with strong foreign capital inflows contrasted by debt risk concerns[7] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 5% by the World Bank, driven by strong exports and investment growth[16] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted down to a range of 1%-3%, reflecting weakened short-term economic momentum[19] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 1.5%, with inflation expected to return to target only by 2027[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance across the region[34]