生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪

Report Overview - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Title: "Pigs: Weak Peak Season, Falsification of Pig Shortage Logic" - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.15 - 12.21), the spot market for pigs showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the supply increasing moderately before the Winter Solstice peak season and the demand rising due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption. The futures market also had a strong - oscillating trend. Next week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating due to large supply pressure despite demand boosts. The LH2601 futures contract price is under pressure, with a short - term support level of 10,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.15 - 12.21) 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of pigs in Henan was 11.78 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). - Before the Winter Solstice peak season, enterprises increased their sales volume, and individual farmers followed suit, resulting in a moderate increase in supply. The demand increased due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption, and the slaughter volume in the north and south reached a new high. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.79KG, a 0.16% increase from last week [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 futures contract price was strongly oscillating, with a maximum of 11,495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11,080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,150 yuan/ton (down from 11,485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.22 - 12.28) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and the increase in feed consumption indicates a large basic stock. Although the cooling and Winter Solstice demand boosted the downstream, the supply increased more before the Winter Solstice peak season, resulting in a weak peak season and large supply pressure. The supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the demand in December has been fulfilled, but there are still some individual farmers engaging in secondary fattening and holding back pigs. There will be a one - month demand vacuum period in the future, and enterprises are more willing to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11,150 yuan/ton on December 19. Although the slaughter volume before the Winter Solstice reached a new high this year, the increase in the spot price was less than expected, the supply pressure was still not effectively released, and the discount delivery expectation increased after the Winter Solstice. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week, the basis was 630 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [9] - Supply Data: This week's average weight was 124.79KG (up from 124.59KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% increase from the previous month, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the previous month [12]