Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The recent rebound in the coal and coke futures market is mainly driven by the game of the main contract approaching delivery and the impact of government intervention on market expectations. However, the current supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand are weak. With limited driving force from the winter storage replenishment market, the report is skeptical about the sustainability of a significant upward trend in prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: This week, coal mines in major producing areas were restricted by factors such as safety inspections and underground working conditions, resulting in continuous production disruptions. The overall supply was difficult to fully release, and the resumption of production was slow. The daily output of raw coal in sample coal mines increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week [3]. - Demand: The restocking demand of coking and steel enterprises has rebounded, and the demand for some high - quality coal types has recovered, but the overall demand is still limited. This week, the molten iron output continued to decline significantly, decreasing by 26,500 tons week - on - week to 2.2655 million tons. On Friday, the third round of price cuts for coke was initiated and is expected to be implemented next Monday [4]. - Macro: To cope with the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, there are relatively frequent domestic year - end meetings, which can still boost market risk appetite to a certain extent, and the valuations of various risk assets have shown a certain upward repair [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.4055 million tons (- 109,000 tons); FW clean coal 4.3208 million tons (- 81,000 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average 630,000 tons (- 98,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 464,900 tons (- 12,000 tons) | | Demand | Molten iron output 2.2655 million tons (- 26,500 tons) | Molten iron output 2.2655 million tons (- 26,500 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 120,000 tons; Mine raw coal + 65,000 tons; Independent coking - 10,000 tons; Mine clean coal + 175,000 tons; Steel mill coking + 103,000 tons; Port - 213,000 tons; FW port + 341,000 tons | MS total inventory - 33,000 tons; Independent coking - 55,000 tons; Steel mill - 15,200 tons; Port + 38,000 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 516 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton) | Coking enterprises' average profit 16 yuan/ton (- 28 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,135 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,621 yuan/ton | [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply: Data on coking coal supply includes weekly and monthly production of raw coal and clean coal, as well as Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. For example, the weekly production of FW raw coal and clean coal has decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at different ports shows different trends [10][12][14]. - Inventory: Coking coal inventory data is presented in multiple aspects, including pit - mouth, port, coking plant, and steel mill inventories. This week, the coking coal port inventory decreased by 213,300 tons week - on - week to 2.8617 million tons. The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 99,000 tons week - on - week to 2.0808 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 66,300 tons week - on - week to 1.3315 million tons [23][25][27]. 02 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply: The supply data of coke includes the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises shows different levels and trends. For example, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises for coke production is around 82% - 89% [38][40]. - Inventory: Coke inventory data is presented for coking plants, steel mills, and the overall sample. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills' coking plants shows different changes. For example, the inventory of independent coking enterprises' coke has changed over time [46][47]. - Supply - Demand and Profit: The supply - demand difference of coke and the profit situation of coking enterprises are also presented. The profit of coking enterprises has decreased, with the average profit of coking enterprises decreasing by 28 yuan/ton week - on - week to 16 yuan/ton [55][58]. 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The report provides the futures market data of coking coal 2601 and 2605, and coke 2601 and 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have shown certain fluctuations in recent days [62][64]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented, such as the car - board prices of different grades of coking coal in different regions and the prices of quasi - first - grade and second - grade coke [70]. - Spread and Basis: The coal - coke monthly spread and basis are also analyzed. With the significant rebound of the futures market, the basis has fallen from a high level [66][72].
煤焦周度观点-20251221
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-21 08:51