铁矿石周度观点-20251221

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core view is that the macro - risk appetite is being repaired again, and iron ore prices are strengthening in the short - term. Fundamentally, there has been no significant change in the supply - demand balance of iron ore, but the previously mentioned structural supply issues and macro factors still support its high valuation. The price's return to the fundamentals awaits the fading of macro - impacts [3][5]. 3. Summary by Sections Supply - Mainstream Mines: Global iron ore shipments have increased again, with Brazil contributing significantly to the growth. The cumulative global shipments from the beginning of the year to now reached 156,766.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. Australian shipments were 89,537.8 million tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments were 38,237.2 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - Non - mainstream Mines: The overall performance of non - mainstream mines is neutral [21]. - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate in North China has declined recently [29]. Demand - Downstream Demand: Demand continues the seasonal downward trend. The daily average of 45 - port imported ore evacuation volume and the actual output of five major steel products are showing a downward trend [32][33]. - Scrap Steel Substitution: The price of scrap steel has rebounded recently, and the low - level rebound of the scrap - iron price difference continues [35]. Inventory - Steel mills' inventory is actively being depleted. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports is 15,512.6 million tons [4][39]. Price Performance - Contract Performance: The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 780.00 yuan/ton, with a position of 535,000 hands, a week - on - week increase of 69,400 hands. The average daily trading volume was 269,000 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 hands [7]. - Spot Price: The price of medium - grade iron ore has increased relatively more. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) increased from 817 yuan/ton last week to 831 yuan/ton this week [12]. Spread - Spot Category Spread: The price of medium - grade PB is relatively strong, and the spread between domestic iron concentrate and PB has been continuously declining [45]. - Futures Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 monthly spread shows signs of further convergence, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is relatively stable [48]. - Basis: The basis has weakened, approaching last year's level [51].