铜行业周报（20251215-20251219）：COMEX铜非商业净多头持仓处于1990年以来87%分位数-20251221

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in copper prices, driven by tightening supply and improving demand [4] - As of December 19, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 93,180 CNY/ton, down 0.96% from December 12, while the LME copper closing price was 11,882 USD/ton, up 2.85% from December 12 [1] - The report highlights that the non-commercial net long position in COMEX copper is at the 87th percentile since 1990, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Global copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 1.938 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.9% month-on-month [2][56] - Demand: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight increase in operating rates, while air conditioning production decreased by 37% year-on-year in November [3][76] - Inventory: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 3.3% [2][26] Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a 43% increase in open interest, reaching 238,000 lots, which is at the 74th percentile since 1995 [4][35] - The COMEX non-commercial net long position increased by 17% week-on-week, reaching 62,000 lots, also at the 87th percentile since 1990 [4][35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]