情绪好转，债市有望温和修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to gradually shift from a rapid decline to a mild recovery. The fragile trading structure in the market will be temporarily repaired, the year - end steady - growth policies are in line with market expectations, and the market funds will be relatively balanced next week [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From December 15th to 21st, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. By December 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.480, 105.925, 108.080, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.105, +0.085, and - 0.350 yuan compared to last weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - With the increasing expectations of LPR rate cuts and the rise of the central bank's bond - buying scale, the bond market strengthened this week. Next week, due to the increasing expectation of the central bank's bond - buying scale, the relatively balanced capital situation, and the lack of further negative news at the macro - level, the bond market is expected to recover mildly [12] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 35 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 376.087 billion yuan and a net financing of 20.874 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds decreased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly [19] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. By December 19th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.38%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.22% respectively, with changes of - 1.96, - 2.08, - 1.20, and - 1.85 basis points compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads widened, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed [23] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. By December 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.480, 105.925, 108.080, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.105, +0.085, and - 0.350 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 33,189, 66,776, 80,379, and 141,799 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,122, - 315, - 6,115, and - 5,287 lots compared to last week. The open interests were 76,891, 143,991, 234,915, and 165,346 lots respectively, with changes of +4,459, +5,550, +1,151, and - 1,753 lots compared to last week [33][36] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the basis of TL fluctuated significantly, while the basis of other varieties showed slight oscillations. Next week, with balanced funds and a mild market recovery expected, the basis is expected to converge slightly. The IRR of the TF2603 contract has been continuously high, and positive arbitrage opportunities are recommended [40] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - By December 19th, the inter - period spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.040, +0.000, - 0.020, and - 0.190 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.018, +0.005, - 0.010, and - 0.010 yuan compared to last weekend [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. The central bank also conducted 600 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations. As of December 19th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.44%, 1.27%, and 1.43% respectively, with changes of +0.73, - 2.78, - 0.57, and - 1.99 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.40 trillion yuan from last week [48][51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds declined slightly. By December 19th, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 98.7125 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.16%, a decline of 3 basis points compared to last weekend. The yield spread between 10Y Chinese and US treasury bonds was inverted by 233.1 basis points [57][58] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. By December 19th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,460.46, 6,672.06, and 1,497.21 points respectively, with increases of 33.31, 91.81, and 13.46 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By December 19th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.53, 5.87, and 7.68 yuan per kilogram respectively, with changes of +0.03, - 0.08, and +0.12 yuan per kilogram compared to last weekend [61] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The bond market is expected to recover mildly, but the volatility of TL is relatively large, so caution is needed when participating in TL trading. Short - selling hedging positions can be gradually exited. Positive arbitrage opportunities for the TF2603 contract are recommended, and curve strategies should be on the sidelines for now [2][15][16]