缩量蓄势延续，逢低布局春季行情

Investment Focus - The report indicates that the Chinese market is transitioning from the late stage of a rebound to a phase of range-bound consolidation, with limited downside remaining and opportunities to buy on dips [1][7] - Domestic-demand consumption is highlighted as a sector likely to benefit from supportive factors, potentially delivering relative outperformance in a choppy market [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1%, the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 2.8%, while the Shanghai Composite was broadly flat, indicating mixed performance across indices [1][7] Overseas Market Insights - The US November CPI came in significantly below expectations, leading to a stable US dollar and a slight decline in US Treasury yields by about 5 basis points, with the probability of a January rate cut rising to 22% [2][8] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, with a cautious outlook on future tightening, as the 10-year JGB yield approached 2% [2][9] Market Dynamics - A-share average daily turnover decreased to RMB 1.76 trillion, while Hong Kong market turnover fell below HKD 200 billion, indicating a contraction in trading volumes [4][11] - In A-shares, equity ETFs (excluding broad market ETFs) recorded a net inflow of RMB 3.1 billion, suggesting early bottom-fishing activity [4][12] - In Hong Kong, short-selling turnover rose to 20%, and southbound inflows slowed, although there was a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion this week [4][13] Sector Performance - Retail, aviation, and tourism sectors performed relatively well, with expectations of rotation towards food & beverages and livestock in the next phase [5][14] - The insurance sector within non-bank financials showed strong performance, which could help drive a rebound in broker stocks [5][14] - Technology remains an important sector for positioning into the spring rally, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech and domestic computing power segments [5][16] Thematic Developments - Tesla reached new record highs, with autonomous driving gaining momentum supported by policy tailwinds, indicating potential for continued growth [5][16]