为何美联储降息后，长端利率不降反升？

Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - Since the Federal Reserve entered a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from 3.73% to 4.16%, despite a cumulative rate cut of 175 basis points (bp) over six reductions[1][8] - The increase in the yield is primarily attributed to an 86 bp rise in term premium, indicating higher compensation for future risks[1][10] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield continuing to trend upward post-rate cuts[1][10][20] Group 2: Economic and Market Outlook - Concerns about inflation rebounding and the sustainability of global debt are limiting the downward movement of long-term yields[1][13][14] - The labor market shows signs of slowing but does not exhibit a clear risk of a significant downturn, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% and a month-on-month wage growth of 0.1%[1][20] - The market's expectations for a recession in the next 12 months are declining, reflecting optimism about economic resilience[1][20][22] Group 3: Asset Class Observations - Gold remains a favorable asset due to increasing global government credit risks, while U.S. stock market volatility is expected to persist amid mixed economic data[1][23] - As of December 20, domestic bond yields have slightly decreased, while domestic stock indices show mixed performance, and Hong Kong stocks are under pressure due to year-end profit-taking and tightening liquidity from the Fed's rate cuts[1][3][41]