国泰君安期货能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251221

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - Short - fiber (PF): In the short - term, it is in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, while the terminal is gradually giving negative feedback upwards. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. Although the fundamental data of short - fiber is good, the processing fee valuation is generally high, and positions for compressing processing fees should be held, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [8]. - Bottle chips (PR): It is in a volatile and weak state. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. In December, the actual supply increases, but the downstream load rebounds. Factories are planning early maintenance to deal with potential high inventory accumulation after mid - January. It is advisable to take long positions in calendar spreads at low prices [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Short - fiber (PF) - Valuation and Profit - The current spot processing fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, both being high [9]. - Strategies include: no unilateral operation; observing and intervening in positive calendar spreads at low prices; and holding short - term positions of long PX/TA and short PF, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [9]. - Fundamental Situation - Supply: The average factory operating rate remains high at 95.5%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate has dropped to 96.8% (due to the 250,000 - ton maintenance of Hengyi Gaoxin until the end of the month) [8]. - Demand: Domestic demand terminal orders are weakening, and the inventory of short - fiber is smoothly transferred with a slight reduction. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3 days, and the physical inventory is 14.7 days. Downstream raw material stocking is at a medium - low level, and the downstream is expected to maintain a rigid - demand replenishment rhythm [8]. Bottle chips (PR) - Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral, and the 02 - 03 processing fee is 380 - 390 yuan/ton, slightly low [10]. - Strategies include: no unilateral operation; taking profit on reverse calendar spreads and taking long positions in calendar spreads at low prices (for contracts after March); and taking profit on short - processing - fee positions [10]. - Fundamental Situation - Supply: The factory operating rate in the fourth quarter is expected to remain around 80% in general. This week, it is 80.8%. After mid - December, the factory operating rate may increase again (Huarun Zhuhai plans to increase the load in late December), and the 300,000 - ton production of Fuhai is still delayed, with the product expected to be available at the end of the month [10]. - Demand: The demand off - season continues, and the end - of - year stock - building to increase the operating rate has not yet arrived. The average operating rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material industries have also decreased. The export volume from November to December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September to October. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased to over 14 days due to concentrated shipments at the beginning of the month [10]. Other Key Points - Sino - US Negotiations: The reduction of fentanyl tariffs by 10% and the non - use of high - value reciprocal tariffs as potential weapons are beneficial to the long - term terminal exports. However, the impact on imports is more reflected in the whole - year import expectations for next year, and competition from other countries should still be noted [11]. - Capacity Planning in 2026: The new capacity planning for bottle chips in 2026 is relatively small, with a capacity growth rate of + 3.2%. For short - fiber, the capacity growth rate is relatively high at 8.7%, which may put greater pressure on non - standard profits [13][16]. - Short - fiber Export: The direct export of short - fiber is expected to remain strong. The export growth rate is high in most regions except North America and Africa, and the exemption of India's BIS certification has a short - term boost to exports [17][18][19]. - Bottle - chip Trade: Overseas demand for bottle chips is increasingly dependent on imports. China's bottle - chip exports have multiple major trade flows, and the export situation to most destination countries is good [82][91].