商品期权周报：2025年第51周-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market decreased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 6.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 6.46 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of -16.35% and -35.33% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities of actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+14%), polysilicon (+5.34%), and p - xylene (+4.62%); those with higher weekly decreases included rapeseed oil (-6.45%), soybean oil (-3.53%), and apple (-3.36%) [2][17]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 32 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50% quantile of the past year. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance [2][17]. - Different varieties showed different sentiment in the options market. For example, the trading volume PCR of palm oil and PVC was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines; while that of cotton, gold, and others was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases [2][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), the trading volume of the commodity options market decreased slightly. The average daily trading volume was 6.91 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 6.46 million lots, with week - on - week changes of -16.35% and -35.33% respectively [1][7]. - The actively traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume this week included silver (1.08 million lots), PVC (0.34 million lots), and glass (0.33 million lots) [1][7]. - There were 4 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100% this week, with significant growth in p - xylene (+256%), asphalt (+143%), and nickel (+125%). The varieties with obvious trading volume decreases were rapeseed oil (-84%), rapeseed meal (-79%), and corn starch (-64%) [1][7]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were silver (0.5 million lots), glass (0.36 million lots), and soda ash (0.36 million lots). The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were p - xylene (+91%) and tin (+49%) [1][7]. 3.2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1. Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+14%), polysilicon (+5.34%), and p - xylene (+4.62%); those with higher weekly decreases included rapeseed oil (-6.45%), soybean oil (-3.53%), and apple (-3.36%) [2][17]. 3.2.2. Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 32 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50% quantile of the past year. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate, nickel, and polysilicon increased by 4.81, 4.71, and 4.25 percentage points respectively [2][17]. - Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included silver, polypropylene, plastic, tin, aluminum, copper, and ethylene glycol. Investors should beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year low included rapeseed meal, soybean oil, and urea, where buying options has a higher cost - performance [2][17]. 3.2.3. Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of palm oil and PVC was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines; the trading volume PCR of cotton, gold, pure benzene, PTA, zinc, aluminum, etc. was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases [2][18]. - The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, silver, iron ore, tin, PTA, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of sentiment for betting on price declines; the open interest PCR of rapeseed oil, gold, aluminum, palm oil, etc. was at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of sentiment for betting on price increases [2][18]. 3.3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. 3.3.1. Energy - The report provides charts on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26][27]. 3.3.2. Chemicals - PTA: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [32][38]. - Caustic Soda: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [41][42]. - Glass: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [47][48]. - Soda Ash: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [55][56]. 3.3.3. Precious Metals - For silver, charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [63][64]. 3.3.4. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [73][74]. - Manganese Silicide: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [79][80]. 3.3.5. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [86][88]. - Aluminum: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [95][97]. 3.3.6. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [103][104]. - Palm Oil: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [109][110]. - Cotton: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [117][118].