美国经济数据倾向降息，美元继续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Report's Core View - The US economic data leans towards interest rate cuts, and the US dollar is expected to continue weakening. The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling, which is favorable for the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. With the upcoming nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the market's expectations for future monetary policy rhythm will change, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to decline [34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high, with stock markets showing mixed performance. Bond yields mostly increased, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.14%. The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher. Gold prices rose 0.9% to $4339 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9, the spot commodity index ended lower, and Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US and A - shares slightly rising. Developed - market stock markets mostly closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.1%. Emerging - market stock markets mostly closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.61%. The Chinese stock market showed an oscillating trend due to weak economic data in November and the support from the "national team" [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, while the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.14%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield initially rose to 4.18% and then declined due to factors such as market expectations of interest rate cuts and good auction data. The Japanese central bank's interest rate hike pushed up the yields of European and American bonds, and the yield curves of developed countries became steeper. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillated downward to 1.828%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly to 232bp [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher [24][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4338 per ounce. The US employment market continued to weaken, and the CPI in November significantly declined. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January slightly increased, and gold oscillated near the previous high. Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel. Supply - side disruptions remained, but demand was weak, and oil prices oscillated at low levels. The spot commodity index ended lower, silver continued to rise, and the volatility of non - ferrous metals increased [28][30] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling. The November non - farm payroll data showed that the slowdown trend in the labor market remained unchanged, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The latest CPI was significantly lower than expected, and core CPI growth was only 2.6%. Although data quality may be an issue, the slowdown in inflation is beneficial to the market [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's December LPR - Tuesday: US Q3 GDP - Wednesday: US initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, European and American markets may close early - Thursday: Christmas, European and American markets are closed - Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [35]