A股策略周报20251221：迎接2026：告别单一叙事-20251221

Market Dynamics - Since November, the correlation between the A-share (CSI 300) and U.S. stock market (S&P 500) has increased, with a 20-day rolling correlation exceeding 90%[3] - The average daily fluctuation of the CSI 300 has narrowed to the 39.7th percentile, while the S&P 500 is at the 33.7th percentile, indicating reduced volatility in both markets[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%[3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, the increase is primarily due to higher labor participation and temporary unemployment, not triggering the "Sam's Rule" threshold[15] AI Industry Insights - Recent trends show a divergence in the AI investment chain, with "broad AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum) outperforming core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules)[4] - There is a negative correlation between the stock price performance of AI core stocks and their capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue, indicating investor concerns over capital spending not translating into revenue growth[4] Domestic Demand Expansion - The Chinese government emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with a focus on increasing consumer spending and investment driven by income growth[5] - By 2025, measures will be taken to enhance secondary distribution, including raising minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies[5] Future Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from physical demand and domestic policy incentives, including industrial resources (copper, aluminum, lithium) and consumer sectors (airlines, hotels, food and beverage)[6] - The report suggests a dual focus on both physical demand and consumption policies as a more reliable investment approach leading into 2026[6]