当下债市热点问题探讨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main logic of the bond market is the lack of incremental funds, and there is also a "debt repayment theory" that the bond market is repaying the over - drawn "debt" since December last year. The "debt repayment" in terms of bond yields is almost done, and the second stage is the return of the bond's duration through secondary - market influence on primary issuance [3][4][32] - There is short - term allocation value in the bond market, but it needs to be considered separately from the perspectives of banks and insurance. The bank's bond allocation value is weakened due to possible over - limit constraints of interest - sensitive assets, while the allocation value of local bonds is prominent from the insurance perspective [3][19][20] - The anti - reflexivity in the bond market supply - demand framework exists. The EVE indicator can adjust assumptions, and the urgency of the indicator decreases in the second year. The issuance structure of interest - rate bonds is not fixed, and the steepening market may reverse [3][13] - The "stock - strong and bond - weak" consensus expectation needs to be vigilant against the anti - reflexivity caused by over - concentrated expectations in the first quarter [4][37][39] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Behind the Framework of Bond Market Supply and Demand: Where is the Reflexivity? - The impact of bond market supply and demand on the market mainly has two paths: the rise of equities leads to the decline of the bond market, the withdrawal of trading funds with unstable liabilities, and the over - limit of the bank's EVE indicator after long - term bonds are taken back to the balance sheet; the rise of equities leads to insurance institutions rebalancing to more stocks and less bonds, resulting in a change in the insurance product structure and a decrease in the demand for long - term bonds [8] - If the treasury bond issuance structure is determined by plans such as stable growth and the proportion of ultra - long bonds remains unchanged, the long - term bond supply and demand will face an annual - level "imbalance" logic [8] - The anti - reflexivity of bond market supply and demand lies in that problems that can be deduced perfectly may not have a large impact. The EVE indicator can be adjusted, and the issuance structure of interest - rate bonds is variable [3][13] 2. Abuse of the Concept of "Allocation Disk": Measuring the Current Allocation Value of Bonds - The insurance allocation disk's buying rhythm has been relatively stable, and it mainly has trading demand for 30 - year treasury bonds, while large - account allocation or amortized product accounts still use local bonds of the same term as allocation varieties [3][15][17] - From the bank's perspective, the EVA cost - performance of 30 - year treasury bonds is better than that of mortgage loan interest rates, but the bank's bond allocation value is weakened due to possible over - limit constraints of interest - sensitive assets. From the insurance perspective, the allocation value of local bonds is prominent [3][19][20] - The seasonal "red - start" market of bonds has been advancing year by year, resulting in the anti - reflexivity of seasonal failure this year [3][23] 3. Why Does the Stock - Bond Correlation Fail? - Since October, the rapid expansion of fixed - income + strategy products has not produced a strong profit - making effect. Under the recent market consensus expectation of "stock - strong and bond - weak", the hedging effect of the fixed - income + strategy is average [25][27] - The relationship between liquidity and assets is like that between flour and water. The increase in risk preference may have led to an increase in "flour" with little marginal change in "water", resulting in unstable trading liquidity, and more precise liquidity injection is needed to break the situation [28] 4. How to Quantitatively Understand the Widening of the Yield Spread? - The market generally agrees on the widening of the term spread, with differences mainly in quantification and duration. In December, the 30 - year to 10 - year spread has reached over 40BP, returning to the level at the end of 2022. The market may have over - drawn the rhythm of next year [29] - There may be new factors for the spread to widen further, such as the widening of the bond yield curve in other countries, the possible inadequacy of using the 2022 bull - market term spread to measure in case of a bull - bear conversion, and the possible inadequacy of the current priced term spread in case of re - inflation. However, if the long - term bond issuance term is adjusted from over 20 years to under 10 years, the spread may change from widening to narrowing [31] 5. Summary: The Current Main Line of the Bond Market - The main line of the current bond market is the lack of incremental funds, and the "debt repayment theory" also has a certain basis. The "debt repayment" in terms of bond yields is almost done, and the second stage is the return of the bond's duration [32][34] - In terms of strategy, the 30 - year bond has the highest short - term over - sold betting odds, but the space for one - sided direction betting is limited. The spread between special 6 and special 2 still has room for betting on regression. Medium - and short - term credit bonds and interest - rate bonds with a term of 5 years or less are relatively stable choices [4][37]