美国经济继续走弱，黄金高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, and gold prices are oscillating at high levels [1]. - Short - term gold price trends are volatile. With the upcoming U.S. Christmas holidays, market trading will become quiet. The previous high of gold has not been broken, and silver has been over - hyped, so there is a need to beware of correction risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High - frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 4.08 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 1.78 yuan and a change rate of - 30.4%. The internal - external futures spread (internal - external) was - 9.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.44 yuan and a change rate of - 21.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 414 kg to 91,716 kg, a 0.5% change. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 38,170 ounces to 36,005,922 ounces, a 0.11% change [12]. - The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.57 tons to 1052.54 tons, a - 0.05% change. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 4,829 lots to 124,637 lots, a 4.0% change [12]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 4.16%, a - 0.7% change. The U.S. 10 - year break - even inflation rate decreased by 0.0345 percentage points to 2.2416%, a - 1.52% change [12]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 7 points to 6,835, a 0.1% change. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 14.9%, a - 5.3% change. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.89%, a - 0.7% change [12]. 2. Financial Market - related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%. Oil prices fell by 0.7%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.24% [18]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.14%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%, and the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9 [21]. - The real interest rate slightly decreased to 1.89%, and the gold price rose by 0.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% [22]. 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.1%. Most developing - country stock markets fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% [24]. - U.S. Treasury bonds declined, German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.26%. The yield on UK Treasury bonds was 4.5%, and that on Japanese bonds was 2.02% [27]. - The euro depreciated by 0.26%, the British pound appreciated by 0.07%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.25%, and the Swiss franc appreciated by 0.03%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [29][32]. 3. Gold Trading - level Data Tracking - The gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR gold ETF holding remained flat at 1053 tons [34]. - The RMB exchange rate oscillated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 65.6 [37]. 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's December LPR. Tuesday: U.S. Q3 GDP. Wednesday: U.S. initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, with European and American markets closed or ending trading early. Thursday: Christmas, with European and American markets closed. Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [38].