几内亚矿石继续好转，氧化铝供应暂未出现明显压减

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [1][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's ore situation continues to improve, and there is no significant reduction in alumina supply for the time being. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, with prices under downward pressure, but the determination of alumina enterprises to cut production is not strong. Considering the current supply - demand situation, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Short positions can be moderately closed for profit, and it is not yet time to enter long positions [14][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices fell last week. The tax - included prices of 58/5 bauxite in Shanxi and Henan were 698 yuan/ton and 620 yuan/ton respectively, while the tax - included arrival price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou remained at 590 yuan/ton. Next month, domestic ore prices are expected to continue to decline. Imported ore prices dropped slightly due to the decline in freight and expected supply increase. The mainstream price of Guinea ore was CIF 70.5 - 71 US dollars/ton. Mines in Guinea's AXIS mining area are gradually resuming production. Newly arrived ore during the period was 425.1 million tons, including 269.9 million tons from Guinea and 149.1 million tons from Australia [2][12] - Alumina: Last week, the spot price of alumina decreased. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2700 - 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The import window was closed. The operating capacity of alumina was basically stable, with no active and long - term production cuts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.6% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new capacity started power - on in November, and the Inner Mongolia Tongliao project is planned to be put into production on December 20. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 40,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the Indonesian electrolytic aluminum plant increased its operating capacity, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 65,000 tons week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of December 18, the national alumina inventory was 4.68 million tons, an increase of 95,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in social inventory was mainly at the electrolytic aluminum end, and port inventory was at a high level [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 179,799 tons, a decrease of 75,088 tons from the previous week [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - In November 2025, China imported 232,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.7% and a year - on - year increase of 134%. Exports were 168,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. The net import was 64,000 tons, compared with a net export of 92,000 tons in the same period last year [16] - The theoretical import window for new alumina orders was closed. The Australian alumina quotation was about 309 US dollars/ton, and the cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2748 yuan/ton [16] - On December 17, some expired alumina warehouse receipts were passively cancelled, and some low - price Xinjiang warehouse receipts were actively cancelled. Due to snowfall in the northwest, some aluminum plants started to pick up goods from the delivery warehouse, and further cancellations are expected [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - Raw Materials and Cost: This part includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume, and prices of raw materials such as caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of alumina [33][37][38] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: This section presents data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as warehouse receipts and positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [44][48][51]