银行业周报（20251215-20251221）：中小银行减量提质加速推进-20251221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector, particularly focusing on the acceleration of "reduction and quality improvement" among small and medium-sized banks [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that since July 2023, the Chinese government has accelerated reforms to mitigate risks in high-risk small financial institutions, with over 400 banks approved for mergers, dissolutions, or cancellations in 2025 alone, surpassing the total of the previous three years combined [4]. - The focus of reforms is on high-risk institutions, particularly rural cooperative banks and village banks, which account for 92% of high-risk entities [4]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is expected to see a systemic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a dual-driven growth model, emphasizing both dividends and growth [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan and a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [2]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Notable banks such as Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Merchants Bank are rated as "Recommended" with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong future performance [5]. - For instance, Ningbo Bank is projected to have an EPS of 4.33 yuan in 2026 with a PE ratio of 6.64, while Jiangsu Bank is expected to have an EPS of 1.83 yuan with a PE of 5.75 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment themes for 2026: 1. State-owned banks and China Merchants Bank as the foundation of national credit and dividends. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with potential for earnings elasticity due to improved interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and significant performance release potential [4].