近期波动溯源，跨年行情如何演绎？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating of this report is "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [24] Core Viewpoints - Since December 2025, although market volatility has increased, the upward trend remains unchanged. The A - share market showed a "V - shaped" reversal last week, and the sentiment for long - positions is still strong [2][6] - This year has seen a significant "stock - strong, bond - weak" trend, but at the year - end, bonds may have a greater reverse impact on stocks. The year - end is a buying opportunity for stocks, following the principle of "buying on small dips, buying more on large dips, and not buying without dips" [2][6] - There will likely be a spring rally. After the year - end, with reduced institutional indicator constraints, funds will form a synergy, and the technology growth sector will have the greatest elasticity [3][6] Summary by Directory Why is December 2025 a "Buy - on - Dip" Opportunity for Stocks? - Extreme stock - bond market conditions at the year - end have increased institutional behavioral differentiation. Bond fluctuations directly affect stocks. Institutions with increased bond investment durations may reduce equity exposure due to solvency and volatility requirements [8] - Banks need to sell long - term bonds due to exceeding EVE indicators, while insurance companies buy long - term bonds. Since Q4 2025, insurance companies have net - bought 313 billion yuan of 10 - year + treasury bonds, and joint - stock banks have net - sold 479 billion yuan. Large bond price fluctuations have led to floating losses for bond buyers [8] - The "Fixed - Income +" strategy has become a negative feedback. The scale of "Fixed - Income +" products expanded significantly in the second half of this year. As of now, new funds in October have not yet made floating profits and have weaker volatility - bearing capacity. In Q3, the scale of "Fixed - Income +" strategy products increased by about 422.5 billion yuan, while the scale of pure - bond funds decreased by 1.6 trillion yuan [9] - The supply and demand of long - term bonds are worrying, and the potential risk of bonds lies in the pressure on the liability side. Even after a sharp decline, the rebound of long - term bonds is weak. The median return of "Fixed - Income +" public funds from October to now is 0.2%, and the maximum loss is - 10.1% [11] Every Decline at the Year - End is a New Opportunity for Stocks - The "relocation" of residents' deposits this round is carried out through institutions. Institutions are responsible for their liability sides, and the liability side has gradually shifted to equity. Asset allocation needs to match the liability side, which requires a slow - bull market [13] - Insurance companies have increased the number of dividend - insurance products since the second half of this year. In November, dividend - insurance products accounted for 48% of new insurance products, and future product layouts will also focus on them, increasing the need to boost investment - end returns [13] - The reinvestment of matured insurance investments is a new variable. The traditional life - insurance products, which account for 55% of the on - sale stock, have a liability - end duration of over 15 years. The 5 - 10Y bonds they hold are due for reinvestment, facing lower yields and thinner capital gains. This may force the asset side to shorten the duration or invest in equity [15] - From the perspective of boosting returns, technology is a necessary choice. The correlation coefficient between the China Bond Index and the CSI Dividend Total Return Index is as high as 0.95, while other broad - based equity indices are negatively correlated with the 10 - year treasury bond index [17] From "Buy - on - Dip" to "Spring Rally" - It is estimated that the incremental funds flowing into the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of "Fixed - Income +" will double. If the market adjusts in December, incremental funds are likely to enter the market in advance [19] - At the year - end, stock price movements are affected by bonds and may be more volatile, but it is a buying opportunity for well - capitalized institutions. In the spring rally next year, technology will still be the most worthy sector to focus on [19] - The importance of industry portfolio research is increasing. A "Fixed - Income + Technology" or a combination of technology and other weakly - correlated industries can meet the requirements of the liability side. For "Fixed - Income +" funds, adding 5% technology is better than adding 10% dividends [19]