Bank of China Securities·2025-12-21 11:21Macro Economic Overview - The economic performance in the first quarter may be affected by the later timing of the Spring Festival, suggesting that macro policies should consider early deployment [1][4] - The asset allocation order is recommended as follows: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency [1][5] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures fell by 1.09% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal rose by 7.92%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 2.24% [12] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products settled at 1.85%, and the annualized yield for Yu'ebao increased by 2 basis points to 1.02% [12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds declined by 1 basis point to 1.83%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.08% [12] Economic Data Insights - In November, industrial output increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 1.3% [20] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with real estate development investment down by 15.9% [21] - National fiscal revenue for the first eleven months reached 20.05 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year [21] Policy and Strategic Insights - The focus remains on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies [4] - The upcoming economic work conference emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security [22] - The central government aims to enhance consumption through various measures, including financial support for key sectors [23] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Stocks are recommended for overweight allocation, with attention to the implementation of 'incremental' policies [4][13] - Bonds are suggested for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][13] - Commodities are maintained at a standard allocation, with a focus on the progress of fiscal incremental policies [4][13] Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed significant sector differentiation, with consumer sectors leading gains, while sectors like power equipment and electronic components faced declines [41][42] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at controlling inventory and promoting the construction of affordable housing [36]