美豆周度报告-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market lacks a bullish foundation due to expected high South American yields, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, trading in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include potential weakening support for biodiesel blending policies from the Trump administration after China's soybean purchases, improved rainfall in Brazil as the rainy season returns and the sowing season nears completion, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Bullish factors are China's expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by February 2026 and over 25 million tons annually for the next three years, initial signs of drought in Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production cuts due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined, closing at 1049.25 cents per bushel, a drop of 27.5 cents per bushel. Concerns about US soybean demand arose as China's 12 - million - ton purchase commitment is now expected to be fulfilled by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025. Additionally, the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated, and the full return of the rainy season in Brazil has alleviated concerns, with the current drought in Argentina having limited impact. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and progress on biodiesel policies [8][10]. - The price of US soybean meal fell this week, closing at $297.6 per short ton, a decrease of $4.9 per short ton. The delay in China's purchase commitment from the end of 2025 to the end of February 2026 has put pressure on the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal [11]. - The price of US soybean oil declined slightly this week, closing at 47.9 cents per pound, a drop of 2.17 cents per pound. Market concerns about slowing export demand for US soybeans and soybean oil, the postponed announcement of biodiesel blending targets, and the decline in crude oil prices driving down palm oil and soybean oil prices contributed to this drop [13]. - As of December 12, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.5 per bushel, a weekly decrease of $0.31 [16]. - On December 19, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped to 116.36 Brazilian reals per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 142.94 Brazilian reals per bag [20][22]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 68%, up from 65% last week [25]. - In Brazil, except for the southern region, precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks. In Mato Grosso, rainfall is expected to be normal in the coming week but low in the second week. In Paraná, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, while in Rio Grande do Sul, precipitation will be high. In Argentina, precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly above normal in the next two weeks (the southern drought - affected areas have limited planting), and temperatures will be basically normal [27][32][35][36][38][41]. - As of the week ending December 13, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week and compared to 96.8% in the same period last year [43]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [46]. - On November 28, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 803,500 tons, up from 763,400 tons last week. On December 12, the weekly export inspection volume was 795,600 tons, down from 1.025 million tons last week. The net sales for this year were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.32 million tons last week (in the week of November 28). The net sales for next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China in the week of December 12 was 202,000 tons, up from 119,800 tons last week [48][50][52][54][56]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.163, remaining in the La Niña range [59]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil is expected to rise next year. The planting costs of soybeans in both Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [61][63][65][66]. - As of December 9, the net long position in soybeans was 211,600 contracts, down from 249,200 contracts last week. The net short position in soybean oil was 10,300 contracts, up from 1,900 contracts last week. The net long position in soybean meal was 22,700 contracts, down from 51,200 contracts last week [67][69][71].