玻璃纯碱周度报告：国泰君安期货：能源化工-20251221

1. Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term shock, long - term shock and weakening [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term shock and weakening, be cautious when shorting at low levels [3] 2. Core Views - Glass: Currently in a shock market. Short - term support lies in relatively low valuation and high positions, which may lead to short - covering in the near - month contracts. There are concerns about further production cuts in the off - season. However, factors such as forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season effects will suppress the price. The market will likely fluctuate between low near - month valuation and lack of upward drivers. [2] - Soda Ash: The core drivers for the decline are oversupply, forward premium pressure in futures, and potential demand pressure from downstream production cuts. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry can drive the market. Although the current start - up rate is declining, the downward driving force is weakening, but the future delivery pressure cannot be underestimated. There is limited room for a continuous sharp decline at the current price level. [3][4] 3. Summary of Each Section Glass Supply - As of December 18, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 219 in production and 77 cold - repaired or shut down. The开工 rate of the float glass industry is 73.99%, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.48%. The daily output is 155,000 tons, unchanged from December 11. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 17,730 tons/day; the total daily melting volume of ignited lines is 15,010 tons/day; the total potential daily melting volume of new ignited lines is 14,190 tons/day; the total potential daily melting volume of old line restarts is 9,530 tons; the total potential daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 9,100 tons/day. [9][10][11] - Current in - production capacity is about 155,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. [16] Glass Demand - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The order situation varies by region. [2] Glass Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 58.558 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 heavy boxes (0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. [2] Glass Price and Profit - Some manufacturers have reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe is about 1,010 - 1,040 yuan/ton; in central China's Hubei region, it is 1,040 - 1,100 yuan/ton; in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers is 1,180 - 1,240 yuan/ton. [20][24] - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 0 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 181 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively. [28][32] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Recently, the market transaction has weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 11 - 12 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13% (with the decline narrowing by 1.95 percentage points compared to last week); the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% (with the decline narrowing by 1.27 percentage points compared to last week). [46][48] Photovoltaic Glass Capacity and Inventory - As of this Thursday, there are 402 domestic photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The sample inventory days are about 35.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 8.65% (with the increase expanding by 2.24 percentage points compared to last week). [50][51][57] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production devices have undergone phased maintenance and load reduction this week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 82.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61%. This week, the domestic soda ash output is 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons (1.91%). [3] - There are plans for some enterprises' future maintenance, such as Shandong Haihua's new line planning to conduct maintenance for about a week in the second half of the month. [61] Soda Ash Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons (0.33%), and a year - on - year decrease of 58,100 tons (3.73%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash is 727,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash is 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons. [4][69] Soda Ash Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The factory ex - factory price has not been adjusted. [76][80] - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 41 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 66 yuan/ton. [85]