有色金属行业周报：通胀放缓，商品价格继续上行-20251221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook due to easing inflation and rising commodity prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data has exceeded market expectations, but the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, with continued demand for gold as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties. Silver prices have recently surged past $65 per ounce, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [3][4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for copper concentrate has been set at $0 per ton for 2026, indicating a significant reduction in smelting fees and increasing expectations for production cuts in copper smelting [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that overseas production cut expectations are strengthening, particularly with the announcement of maintenance shutdowns at major aluminum smelting facilities, which, combined with domestic inventory reductions, is expected to support aluminum prices [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - View 1: U.S. CPI and employment data may lack credibility, leading to volatile precious metal prices. Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while silver prices are supported by supply-demand imbalances [3]. - View 2: New copper concentrate long-term contract prices are set low, increasing expectations for smelting production cuts, which may support higher copper prices [3]. - View 3: Strengthening overseas production cut expectations and ongoing domestic inventory reductions are likely to push aluminum prices higher [4]. Company Insights - Company Activity: Luoyang Molybdenum plans to acquire South American gold mines, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [10]. - Stock Recommendations: The report recommends stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as copper and aluminum stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [11]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - Lithium Market: The recovery progress of the Jiangxi lithium mine may be slower than expected, leading to upward pressure on lithium prices due to supply tightness [12]. - Cobalt Prices: Cobalt salt prices have been rising, supported by slow export approval processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to tighter supply conditions [13][14]. - Company Activity: Tianqi Lithium's expansion project is progressing, which will enhance its production capacity and improve profitability [15]. Aluminum Industry Data Tracking - Production and Inventory: The report tracks significant data on aluminum production, inventory levels, and profit margins, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports price stability [22][44].