工业硅减产尚未落地，多晶硅现货报价抬高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction in industrial silicon production has not yet been implemented, and the spot price quotation of polysilicon has increased [1][12][14] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still depend on the production reduction and shutdown rhythm of enterprises. If the production reduction plan is implemented, the industrial silicon market is expected to reach a tight balance in December. Otherwise, inventory may accumulate in Q1 2026. The key to the success of the price increase of polysilicon lies in whether it can be passed on to the downstream, which requires the entire industry chain to be more strictly self - disciplined to achieve "trading volume for price" [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8690 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon increased by 3055 yuan/ton to 60245 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Production Reduction Not Yet Implemented, Polysilicon Spot Price Quotation Increased Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Xinjiang added 2 furnaces, Yunnan decreased 2, Sichuan decreased 1, and Gansu decreased 3. The production reduction is not obvious. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.8 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.55 tons. The basis strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the polysilicon segment [2][12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 70.74%, the weekly output was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The inventory was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The price increase support is relatively stable, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, so the increase is expected to be limited [13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose sharply this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price quotation of polysilicon increased again. As of December 18, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The key to the success of the new price lies in whether the price increase can be passed on to the downstream [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers stopped falling and rebounded this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The inventory of silicon wafer factories decreased by 1.8GW week - on - week. The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise slightly [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells increased this week. Affected by the continuous rise in silver paste prices, many battery factories raised their prices. The inventory of overseas - sold battery cell factories increased by 0.37GW week - on - week. The probability of a price increase for battery cells is high, but the increase depends on the acceptance of the component end [16] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the price increase of battery cells, some leading enterprises have updated their quotations, raising the price by 2 - 4 cents/watt. The demand has dropped significantly, and the visibility of new orders is low. Whether the component price can rise depends on whether there can be a larger - scale production reduction [17] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [4][18] - Polysilicon: The spot price is expected to be difficult to fall. The new price can only be successful if the price increase can be passed on to the downstream through "trading volume for price". Investors are advised to hold positions cautiously [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the minimum opening order quantity of polysilicon futures contracts from 1 lot to 5 lots starting from December 22, 2025 [19] - The mechanism electricity prices for photovoltaic and wind power in Xinjiang in 2026 are 0.15 yuan/kWh and 0.21 yuan/kWh respectively, with a total electricity volume of 19.826 billion kWh [19] - The mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic in Yunnan in 2026 is 0.329 yuan/kWh [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a large number of charts on the prices, production, and inventory of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with data sources including SMM and Baichuan Yingfu [9]